Hurricane Jerry

Forecast Advisory 16

---

244
WTNT25 KNHC 210853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART