Hurricane Jerry
Forecast Advisory 20
258
WTNT22 KNHC 220857
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 59.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 60.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
408
WTNT25 KNHC 220859
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 66.6W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 66.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
