Hurricane Jerry
Forecast Advisory 22
752
WTNT22 KNHC 222036
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 62.3W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 62.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
753
WTNT25 KNHC 222036
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 30SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 66.8W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 66.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
