Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 7

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490
WTNT25 KNHC 232030
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 68.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





704
WTNT23 KNHC 232033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 25.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 25.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 24.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.7N 27.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.4N 30.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.1N 33.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.6N 35.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.4N 40.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 70SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.3N 43.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 25.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY





412
WTNT22 KNHC 232039
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 65.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 65.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.9N 66.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.3N 65.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 65.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN