Tropical Storm Karen

Forecast Advisory 20

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551
WTNT23 KNHC 270231
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 41.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO





552
WTNT22 KNHC 270231
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 62.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA