Hurricane Emily

Public Advisory 40A

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 201757
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

...EMILY STICK PACKING A PUNCH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WELL
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA
CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. PORTIONS OF BOTH WARNING AREAS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR DOWNGRADED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES
... 170 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES
... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE
CENTER. RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BOTH
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS ALSO INDICATES THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY
OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND
JUST OFFSHORE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY.
STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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