Hurricane Dean

Public Advisory 12

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848
WTNT34 KNHC 160849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




312
WTNT35 KNHC 160852
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
400 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...ERIN NEARING THE COAST OF TEXAS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS SOUTHWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO ERIN MAKING
LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 45 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...27.3 N...96.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN