Tropical Storm Karen

Public Advisory 13

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083
WTNT33 KNHC 280241
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...LORENZO STRENGTHENING JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF TUXPAN WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENZO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




221
WTNT32 KNHC 280245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2007

...KAREN STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST OR ABOUT 780
MILES...1255 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...49.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE