Hurricane Noel

Public Advisory 15

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 310832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...NOEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF NOEL OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF CUBA TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. CAYO
COCO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 20
TO 30 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN