Hurricane Noel

Public Advisory 19

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 010832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
NOEL THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE
BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...23.7 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN