Hurricane Omar
Public Advisory 10
115
WTNT35 KNHC 152044
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008
...OMAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...
SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA
PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.9 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
736
WTNT31 KNHC 152046
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING INLAND IN NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...
...MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DROPPED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN BELIZE COAST NORTH OF
BELIZE CITY. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DROPPED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BELIZE
COAST TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.5 N...85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
