Tropical Depression Sixteen

Public Advisory 5A

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638
WTNT31 KNHC 151800
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
200 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

...BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER NORTHEAST
HONDURAS...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS NEAR LATITUDE
15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10
KM/HR...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...15.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART




764
WTNT35 KNHC 151816
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

CORRECTED POSITION LATITUDE IN MAIN BODY AND REPEAT SECTION

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...310
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART