Hurricane Julia
Public Advisory 12
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150531
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010
...JULIA STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY...NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH
WINDS...
SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 31.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1230 AM AST...0530 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST. JULIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIA IS NOW A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...430 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCJ
000
WTNT33 KNHC 150557
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010
...KARL HEADED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL AT THE
MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE
BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.....PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. KARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF KARL REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY AFTER KARL MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
