Hurricane Karl
Public Advisory 14A
000
WTNT33 KNHC 172336
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010
...KARL WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 75 MI..115 KM E OF PUEBLA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS
LOCATED WELL INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.1 WEST. KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
KARL IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KARL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...80 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR
THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE CENTER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AS KARL
WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND
MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN
THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.
RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 172349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR MARCHING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AS EARLY AS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.
IGOR IS A PARTICULARLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WERE
REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED 245 MI...395 KM...NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER OF IGOR...AND ALSO AT NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED THE SAME
DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
