Hurricane Paula
Public Advisory 15
000
WTNT33 KNHC 150239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
...PAULA SKIRTING THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR VERADERO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.1N 81.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...
95 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD EASTWARD NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
CUBA. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
