Hurricane Maria
Public Advisory 15A
540
WTNT35 KNHC 101148
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
...NATE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 94.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NATE WILL REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND NATE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF CAMPECHE.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
256
WTNT34 KNHC 101149
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011
...MARIA LOSING ORGANIZATION...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR DOMINICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. BARTHELEMY AND ST. MARTEEN
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA
CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MARIA
COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM MARIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS MARIA MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...MARIA COULD DEGENERATE TO
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THEN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO BY THE END OF THE DAY.
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
