Hurricane Ophelia

Public Advisory 43A

---

057
WTNT31 KNHC 031147
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011

...CENTER OF OPHELIA TO PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.1N 54.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF OPHELIA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE EARLIER
POSITION.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL PASS OVER
THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON
PENINSULA THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN