Hurricane Michael

Public Advisory 31



997
WTNT32 KNHC 102036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...LESLIE RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND WITH 70 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.1 WEST. LESLIE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST BEFORE LESLIE
MOVES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL OR FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...
370 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC
PROVINCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND AND EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LESLIE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



348
WTNT33 KNHC 102039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

...MICHAEL TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 47.6W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION IS FORECAST LATER TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN