Hurricane Rafael
Public Advisory 5A
177
WTNT32 KNHC 132335
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012
...CENTER OF RAFAEL NOW BETWEEN ST. MARTIN AND ST. CROIX...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.9N 63.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ST. MARTIN RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ST. MARTIN RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
