Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 062032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2002

...RAINS CONTINUE AS FAY REMAINS STALLED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT OCONNOR TO HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR
ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

FAY IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE SLOW AND ERRATIC...BUT A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WINDS COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. NEARLY ALL OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WITH FAY ARE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION WELL REMOVED FROM
THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAY OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TIDE GAUGE OBSERVATIONS FROM FREEPORT TEXAS SHOW THAT STORM SURGE IS
NOW 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL. THE STORM SURGE IS FORECAST
TO REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 94.8 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN