Tropical Depression Fourteen

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 141437
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...
CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR EARLY
TUESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 83.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART