Tropical Depression Fourteen

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 150853
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...DEPRESSION BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCE OF CIEGO DE
AVILA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES
OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST
FLORIDA...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH
...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN