Tropical Depression Fourteen

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 151430
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA FOR WESTERN CUBA MAY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...BUT A STEADY MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...STEERING
CURRENTS ARE PRESENTLY WEAK SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 82.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART