Tropical Depression Fourteen

Forecast Advisory 6

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 152054
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA FOR WESTERN CUBA MAY BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART