Tropical Depression Fourteen

Forecast Advisory 7

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 160236
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
CUBA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MATANZAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIEGO
DE AVILA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND THE
ABACOS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
CIENFUEGOS CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE
CENTER CROSSES OVER CUBA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA