Hurricane Isidore

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 192030
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

...ISIDORE STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS FOR CUBA...BECOMES THE SECOND
HURRICANE OF THE 2002 SEASON...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND INCLUDING
THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS EAST OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT ISIDORE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...150 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISIDORE WILL PASS
OVER OR VERY NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN