Hurricane Isidore

Forecast Advisory 16

---

000
WTNT35 KNHC 200236
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

...ISIDORE NEARING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...EXPECTED TO SPEND FRIDAY
CROSSING THE WESTERNMOST PORTION OF CUBA ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL
RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
MILES...95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE ISLE
OF YOUTH...OR 165 MILES...260 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

ISIDORE IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ISIDORE WILL BE MOVING
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS
AND CROSSING THE WESTERNMOST PORTION OF CUBA LATER ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA. ISIDORE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA