Hurricane Isidore

Forecast Advisory 17

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 200850
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

...ISIDORE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA AND PINAR DEL RIO
...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
BUT WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 110
MILES...175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER FAR WESTERN CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP T0 20 TO 30 INCHES...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 83.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 967 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE