Hurricane Isidore
Forecast Advisory 23
000
WTNT35 KNHC 212038
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISIDORE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2002
...ISIDORE GROWING STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF COZUMEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN CUBA
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISIDORE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES...90 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO CATOCHE ON THE NORTHEAST
TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
ISIDORE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF ISIDORE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EYE WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN YUCATAN THIS EVENING...BUT JUST A
SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE EYE AND THE MOST
INTENSE WINDS ONSHORE.
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ISIDORE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ISIDORE IS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM CUBA...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 T0 15 INCHES...ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.9 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 212042
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
...KYLE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT
780 MILES...1270 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KYLE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...32.0 N... 51.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 212051
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
...A DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 955 MILES...1450 KM...EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH
...28 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...10.4 N... 45.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
