Hurricane Kyle
Forecast Advisory 44
000
WTNT33 KNHC 011519
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
...LILI STRIKING WESTERN CUBA...INTENSIFIES FURTHER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS
IN THESE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LILI.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
35 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO FRANCES IN WESTERN CUBA. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA
CUBA.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER OF LILI ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LILI COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA TODAY.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.8 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 011519
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2002
...TENACIOUS KYLE BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT KYLE REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES...440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
KYLE HAS BEEN MEADERING SINCE YESTERDAY AND LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N... 67.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
