Hurricane Kyle
Forecast Advisory 46
000
WTNT33 KNHC 020232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002
...LILI CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...POISED TO STRENGTHEN
EVEN MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
UNITED STATES WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
...215 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 520 MILES... 840 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LILI A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND LILI COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY OBSERVED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...23.3 N... 86.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT...WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 020238
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2002
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA.
KYLE IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...28.4 N... 67.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST...WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG
