Hurricane Kyle

Forecast Advisory 48

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2002

...LILI BECOMES MAJOR HURRICANE...CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TEXAS TO
HIGH ISLAND...AND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES LILI A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. THIS
SURGE COULD SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF LILI.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 88.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN





000
WTNT32 KNHC 021450
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED OCT 02 2002

...KYLE STRENGTHENING AGAIN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR. HOWEVER...THIS MOTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
KYLE SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.9 N... 67.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN