Hurricane Kyle
Forecast Advisory 50
000
WTNT33 KNHC 030230
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2002
...LILI REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...DEADLY 10 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE APPROACHING THE COAST...
...FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION NOW...FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH ISLAND ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF
LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RESEARCH HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LILI IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO
150 MILES NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LILI. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF LOUISIANA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS LIKELY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST. THE SURGE COULD SPREAD AS MUCH AS 25 MILES INLAND ACROSS
THE LOW-LYING PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
TRACK.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLOODING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.2 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT...THURSDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 030256
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED OCT 02 2002
...KYLE BECOMES STATIONARY AGAIN...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
KYLE IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...29.1 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST...THURSDAY.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
