Hurricane Lili
Forecast Advisory 39
000
WTNT32 KNHC 010812
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2002
...KYLE NEARLY STATIONARY AND REMAINS WEAK...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...28.5 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
000
WTNT33 KNHC 010836
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002
...LILI NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF CUBA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...16 KM
SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME FURTHER
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LILI COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA TODAY.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N... 82.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
