Hurricane Lili
Forecast Advisory 41
000
WTNT32 KNHC 012028
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2002
...KYLE REFUSES TO WEAKEN...
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
KYLE IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...28.5 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 012036
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002
...LILI ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM SAN LOUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH
OF CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA AND INTO
THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES LILI A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM. SOME SQUALLS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE WESTERN COASTS OF CUBA SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS OF CUBA.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...22.7 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
