Hurricane Fabian

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 301442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CORPUS CHRISTI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS FORMED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT 10 AM
CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES
...540 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO THE TEXAS COAST IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION THIS
AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE
DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 92.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT35 KNHC 301456
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2003

...FABIAN STRENGTHENS...WINDS REACH 100 MPH...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 855 MILES
...1375 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.2 N... 48.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA