Hurricane Fabian

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT35 KNHC 010229
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2003

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE FABIAN STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE FABIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST OR ABOUT
460 MILES...740 KM...EAST OF BARBUDA IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...FABIAN IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW
REACHED 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATION
IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE AND WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE EXACT STRENGTH OF FABIAN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 54.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 940 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART