Hurricane Fabian
Forecast Advisory 33
000
WTNT32 KNHC 042037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 04 2003
...RAINY TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING FOR FLORIDA GULF COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO INDIAN PASS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS
AND HIGH RIVER STAGES...THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN EXTREME
FLOODING.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT35 KNHC 042040
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 04 2003
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FABIAN HEADING FOR BERMUDA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FABIAN IS A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY ON BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES...670
KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
FABIAN IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. FABIAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA EARLY FRIDAY...WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE EYE. THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
BERMUDA TONIGHT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 941
MB...27.79 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA.
LARGE SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO. LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...26.4 N... 64.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
