Hurricane Fabian
Forecast Advisory 37
000
WTNT32 KNHC 052041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
...HENRI MOVING ERRATICALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
THE CENTER OF HENRI HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5
MPH. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH HENRI. DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH RIVER STAGES...THESE HEAVY
RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.4 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
WTNT35 KNHC 052052
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2003
...FABIAN LASHING BERMUDA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...
...STRONGEST HURRICANE THERE IN DECADES...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
THE EYEWALL OF FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING OVER BERMUDA DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
FABIAN WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...FABIAN WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE WEATHER SERVICE FROM BERMUDA RECENTLY
RELAYED AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF 117
MPH...189 KM/HR AND A PEAK GUST OF NEAR 127 MPH...204 KM/HR FROM
BERMUDA HARBOR RADIO. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 103 MPH...167 KM/HR WITH A
GUST OF 132 MPH...213 KM/HR...WERE ESTIMATED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT
ONE HOUR AGO.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
AFFECTING BERMUDA.
LARGE SWELLS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.6 N... 65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
