Hurricane Isabel

Forecast Advisory 14

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 091418
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 09 2003

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM INA
DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N... 24.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT33 KNHC 091432
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 09 2003

...CATEGORY 4 ISABEL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST OR ABOUT 980 MILES
...1580 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING ISABEL A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 46.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART