Hurricane Isabel

Forecast Advisory 44



000
WTNT33 KNHC 170240
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...ISABEL HEADING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COAST...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE
LINE INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE NORTHWARD TO
CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL
POTOMAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...AND FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE CENTER
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY USAF RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.5 N... 71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE