Hurricane Isabel

Forecast Advisory 49

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 180839
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003

...LARGE CATEGORY TWO ISABEL BEARING DOWN ON THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO MORICHES INLET NEW YORK. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
MORICHES INLET...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA...FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND
FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
DETERIORATING OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING ONTO THE COAST
IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD ALSO EXTEND INLAND UP TO 150 MILES
ALONG THE PATH OF ISABEL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS
MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. NOAA
BUOY 41002 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 978.8 MB...28.90 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...33.1 N... 74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN