Hurricane Juan

Forecast Advisory 15



000
WTNT31 KNHC 290225
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1065
MILES...1715 KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAJES IN THE AZORES.

KATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
...370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...26.7 N... 40.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE




000
WTNT35 KNHC 290241
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JUAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003

HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
HALIFAX.

JUAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 32 MPH...52 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUAN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUAN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT...OR UP TO 1.5 METERS...IS LIKELY
NOW PEAKING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR AND EAST OF
HALIFAX. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...45.8 N... 63.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 32 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 974 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE




000
WTNT35 KNHC 290253
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
JUAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2003

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL POSITION 44.5N 63.8W INSTEAD OF 45.8N 63.5N

...JUAN REACHES NOVA SCOTIA...

HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON
THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
HALIFAX.

JUAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 32 MPH...52 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUAN ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS JUAN IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT...OR UP TO 1.5 METERS...IS LIKELY
NOW PEAKING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA NEAR AND EAST OF
HALIFAX. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...44.5 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 32 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 974 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE