Tropical Storm Larry

Forecast Advisory 11

---

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040826
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT OCT 04 2003

...KATE BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES
...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

KATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 52.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT32 KNHC 040827
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2003

...LARRY REFUSES TO MOVE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO CAMPECHE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

LARRY HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT A
SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION WOULD
BRING LARRY CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA AS THE LARRY MOVES ASHORE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LARRY ARE SPREADING ONSHORE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.4 N... 94.0 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA