Hurricane Frances
Forecast Advisory 16
000
WTNT32 KNHC 282030
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
...HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS GASTON STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCH
ISSUED...
AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA
BEACH FLORIDA.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
GASTON IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD
BRING THE CENTER OF GASTON NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND GASTON
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNED AREA. DANGEROUS HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNED AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 282039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004
...FRANCES STRENGTHENS INTO THE SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE OF
THE 2004 ATLANTIC SEASON...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 690
MILES...1110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$