Hurricane Frances
Forecast Advisory 17
000
WTNT31 KNHC 290228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004
...FRANCES TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 635
MILES...1025 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES HAS BEGUN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST...AS FORECAST...AND
IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N... 53.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
$$
000
WTNT32 KNHC 290240
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF
CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL GEORGIA FROM
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
GASTON IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF GASTON IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GASTON IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY
BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY U.S. AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNED AREA. DANGEROUS HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNED AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GASTON.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
