Hurricane Frances

Forecast Advisory 18



000
WTNT32 KNHC 290838
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

...GASTON CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. SINCE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PRECISELY
PREDICT THE PATH OR INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
THROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF GASTON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...32.5 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$



000
WTNT31 KNHC 290837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...FRANCES ON TRACK...HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST OR ABOUT 590
MILES... 950 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS..

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND FRANCES COULD REACH NEAR CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY
LATER TODAY. AN AIRFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N... 54.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN


$$


000
WTNT32 KNHC 290838
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

...GASTON CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. SINCE IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PRECISELY
PREDICT THE PATH OR INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
THROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF GASTON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR MIDDAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GASTON.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...32.5 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


$$