Hurricane Frances

Forecast Advisory 21



000
WTNT33 KNHC 300235
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...HERMINE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST OR ABOUT
590 MILES... 950 KM... SOUTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.

HERMINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...33.2 N... 71.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN


$$


000
WTNT31 KNHC 300253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE CONTINUES ON SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA
...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND
SABA. ST MARTIN AND ST BARTHELEMY MAY ALSO BE THREATENED. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH
AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST OR ABOUT 455
MILES... 730 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 56.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


$$