Hurricane Frances

Forecast Advisory 27

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000
WTNT32 KNHC 311434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...GASTON MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES... 250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

GASTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...39.5 N... 71.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$



000
WTNT31 KNHC 311455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...CORE OF POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDES
ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST
MAARTEN...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA AND GUADELOUPE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAINBANDS
OF FRANCES WILL AFFECT THESE ISLANDS TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRANCES TODAY.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH COAST OF THE
ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.0 N... 64.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$