Hurricane Frances
Forecast Advisory 46
000
WTNT34 KNHC 050837
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 05 2004
...IVAN BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON...
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IVAN.
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1210 MILES...
1950 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION... 9.7 N... 44.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
000
WTNT31 KNHC 050847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...FRANCES WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...OR FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 500 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
...ON THE WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...
AND ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM DEEFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
WEST OF STUART. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TAMPA FLORIDA.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH. THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED WELL INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF PALM
BEACH...MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. A CONTINUED WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE ENTIRE EYE OF THE
HURRICANE INLAND BY SUNRISE TODAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY TAKE UP TO
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO REACH SOME PORTIONS OF THE MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE
COUNTY COASTLINE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...WEST PALM BEACH REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 90 MPH HAVE ALSO RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF ISLANDS OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER GRAND BAHAMA
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...27.2 N... 80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
